The question about whether President Obama will be a one-term President is going to be revealed once the Republicans will have elected whom they want to run for office. New times didn't quite happen when Obama came into office. Bad scenarios have popped up all around him, and it doesn't take much to consider how a serious Republican candidate COULD win back the office after some pretty awful years under Bush.
It isn't a question about whether Obama made an effort. Everyone realizes he did his best. It would have been stupid to do anything less, because everyone knows a President will be evaluated very harshly by voters when considering four more years.
Everyone considered it was an act of kindness to choose Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, but the choice didn't quite have the effect they would have anticipated. Bill Clinton may be remembered more fondly after he left office, but the whims of Hillary as hidden puppet master seems to be apparent once again - and her chances as a candidate in 2016 are slim at best.
Republicans are free to choose whom they want, but a very strong guess is that Republicans will choose the safe candidate. A candidate that could "prove" even women could enter office, and letting Sarah Palin from Alaska run would be a wise choice. Even if she fails, the Reoublican party could always claim it was because Afro-American Barack Obama was a popular President who, quite naturally, won his second term.
In other words: it would be too dangerous to let Mrs. Palin take on the role of martyr when the Old Boy Network didn't accept her during the 2012 since it would create an even greater expectation for a female President.
In a time when equality should have been natural long ago, sexes are once again important. The power of religion is strong, and no president can ever afford to overlook the strong Bible Belt voters. The Republicans know this because it has been at the centre of their focus every time they have won the office.
So interesting times indeed. :-)